Wednesday, 16 July 2014

Election 2014 - Questioning Quick Count

Out of 11 survey agencies, 7 agencies counted Jokowi-JK as winners while the other 4 agencies counted Prabowo-Hatta. All agencies agrees, however, that the differences are very slim. Somewhere between 3 percent to 5 percent. It's almost a draw.

In a close knit situation like this, it is difficult to determine the result of election commission's real count due on 22 July 2014. Here is some numbers to ponder:

Number of registered voters (DPT): 190,307,134 voters
Number of polling places (TPS): 478,685 places
Average number of DPT per TPS : 400 DPT
Maximum allowable DPT per TPS: 800 DPT

Number of samples obtained by Survey agencies: 2,000 to 5,000 TPS only (+/- 1%), expectedly those TPS with the highest number of DPTs.

It means that there are still around 470,000 TPS (around 99%) unaccounted in their quick count.

It is best to wait until the election commission completes their ballot count on 22 July 2014.

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