Election 2014 - Jokowi, Indonesia new President

Indonesia has a new President. Joko Widodo has been elected new President by narrow margin. The election commission finally announced the long waited results at 4.30pm today.

The other candidate, Prabowo Subianto, instead of admitting defeat, decided to pull out from the election in the last hours prior to the announcement. I'm not quite sure what does it mean. Mr. Subianto said his team has substantial evidences of fraud and will take them to the constitutional court (MK). I guess it will be a long road to challenge the result. It seems that the real count result is irrevocable.

Yesterday, the incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, invited both candidates for a dinner at the Presidential palace. He asked commitment from both candidates to maintain order, whatever the results would be.

Congratulations to Mr. Joko Widodo.

Election 2014 - Questioning Quick Count

Out of 11 survey agencies, 7 agencies counted Jokowi-JK as winners while the other 4 agencies counted Prabowo-Hatta. All agencies agrees, however, that the differences are very slim. Somewhere between 3 percent to 5 percent. It's almost a draw.

In a close knit situation like this, it is difficult to determine the result of election commission's real count due on 22 July 2014. Here is some numbers to ponder:

Number of registered voters (DPT): 190,307,134 voters
Number of polling places (TPS): 478,685 places
Average number of DPT per TPS : 400 DPT
Maximum allowable DPT per TPS: 800 DPT

Number of samples obtained by Survey agencies: 2,000 to 5,000 TPS only (+/- 1%), expectedly those TPS with the highest number of DPTs.

It means that there are still around 470,000 TPS (around 99%) unaccounted in their quick count.

It is best to wait until the election commission completes their ballot count on 22 July 2014.

Election 2014 - The Day After

Since the day after the election day, the stock index has passed 5,000 level. A newspaper headline calls it "Jokowi's effect", citing an assumption of investor's confidence in the election result. Jokowi is one of the two Presidential cadidates who had been declared winner by 7 survey agencies, out of 11 survey agencies conducting quick count. However, since the election commission has not completed the ballot count, one cannot help to think that the paper has been taking side. Arguably, I guess it is okay to take side this time, even for the press who supposed to be neutral. It gives more color to the situation.

I have a different view, though. And I guess it is okay, too. In my opinion, investors do not care much about who wins the election. Investors care more on the political stability after the election. Jokowi or Prabowo, if the day after the country goes into turmoil, investors will be very cautious in their investments. Luckily, it went peaceful. Either because Indonesians have become more politically mature, or simply because those who usually staging protests have now gone mudik for Eid Al Fitri celebration. I can't help to suspect the later, though.

  

Election 2014 - Quick Count Results

Indonesians have voted, but the election is hardly over. It will take days to collect ballots from more than 15,000 islands throughout the nation. Some survey agencies have issued what they refer as "quick count" results.

Presidential candidates Mr. Prabowo Subianto dan Mr. Joko Widodo (Jokowi)

Here are the quick count results as publsihed by their respective survey agency:

01. Populi Center 49,05 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 50,95 (Jokowi/JK)
02. CSIS 48,1 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 51,9 (Jokowi/JK)
03. Litbang Kompas 47,66 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 52,33 (Jokowi/JK)
04. Indikator Politik Indonesia 47,05 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 52,95 (Jokowi/JK)
05. Lingkaran Survei Indonesia 46,43 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 53,37 (Jokowi/JK)
06. Radio Republik Indonesia 47,32 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 52,68 (Jokowi/JK)
07. Saiful Mujani Research Center 47,09 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 52,91 (Jokowi/JK)
08. Puskaptis 52,05 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 47,95 (Jokowi/JK)
09. Indonesia Research Center 51,11 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 48,89 (Jokowi/JK)
10. Lembaga Survei Nasional 50,56 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 49,94 (Jokowi/JK)
11. Jaringan Suara Indonesia 50,13 (Prabowo/Hatta) - 49,87 (Jokowi/JK)

So, who wins the 2014 presidential election? Prabowo - Hatta or Jokowi - Jusuf Kala? Let's wait until the election commission (KPU) completes their "real count" on 22 July 2014.